Native Spanish speakers worldwide in 2025: an estimate

We estimate that there are approximately 496.6 million native Spanish speakers (i.e. people who speak Spanish as their first language, or L1) worldwide in 2025. Here's how we came up with this number:
- We sourced the population data estimates for each Hispanophone country (i.e. a country in which Spanish is an official language, either de facto or de jure) plus Puerto Rico from the U.S. Census Bureau's U.S. and World Population Clock [1], which is one of the best population estimates available.
- To calculate the number of native Spanish speakers in each Hispanophone country, we applied Moreno-Fernandez et al.'s estimates [2] of the percentage of native speakers in each Hispanophone country against its population data. We did the same thing with Puerto Rico.
- Lastly, we added Instituto Cervantes' estimate [3] of the number of first-language Spanish speakers in non-Hispanophone countries and territories to the total.
Our estimate differs slightly from other popular ones. Ethnologue's 2019 Languages of the World report [4], which estimated a total of 460 million first-language Spanish speakers worldwide, is outdated. Instituto Cervantes' 2024 report [3], which estimated a total of 498.5 million first-language Spanish speakers worldwide no longer uses Moreno-Fernandez et al.'s estimates of the percentage of native speakers in each Hispanophone country, and it now calculates it 'according to the updated data provided by the relevant demographic sources'. It also states that the population data for each Hispanophone country has been extracted from the 'information provided by the respective census offices or statistical institutes'.
Here is the data.